tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC January 22, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
you had some under loved stocks doing prettily well accident and netflix not. >> as john said earlier, the list of earnings next week from facebook to at&t to caterpillar, it's going to be something to watch. have a good weekend. stay out of the snow. let's get to whopner and the headquarters and "the half." ♪ >> thanks. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet the starting line-up for today. cnbc senior markets commentator. our game plan looks like this. ivy zellman live. what's really happening in house sng she's the analyst people call. we'll have the exclusive interview on the state of real estate. the apple trade. with that stock moving 3% higher this hour, piper's gene munster with us on his market-moving note today that has the stock on the move. we begin with stocks going for their first positive week of
2016. helped by a massive jump in the price of crude oil. take a look where we do stand at this hour. we're off the best levels. dow dropping below 16,000 again, but still up 115 points. >> do you think we're at the tradeable bottom for a while? >> i don't know. it really depends, i think, on what happens with oil. that's what i think is really running the show. do you think it's both oil and stocks? >> oil, i think, is still really going to be very volatile. i don't think anything fundamentally has changed. maybe it being oversold for sure. i still think that this market we need -- for this market to go hire, we need it just to stabilize. it doesn't need to go up 6% each day. it just needs to stabilize, ask then we have to hear from companies and i think the companies that benefit from the lower oil prices, lower interest
rate environment, and that's consumer. if you have noticed in the last couple of days, the consumer stocks have done very well. >> do you think the fear mongering has been overdone, and that the market has pulled back outsized with what the reality is of where we currently sit? >> fear mongering is always overdone. let's face it. it's what people do. that being said, i don't think there's pain out there. >> some people see it justified. some people think we're going to hell in a hand basket again. >> you see oil up 6% to 7%, and there's a lot of pain that's being felt both ways there. oil is over done, and i think you can keep squeezing here. it won't fix the demand equation, but it can keep running.
>> maybe the biggest dell, if there was one, besides oil, is the day we had the big selloff and then the russell came back and went positive. if you are looking for a positive sign to hang your hat on, small capsral will youing back to the magnitude they did seemed to stop a lot of the bleeding. >> i happen to love small caps, so i want to hang my hat on that. i have to point out that they have been decimated in the weeks leading up to this. >> i would lot of to see us up while oil is flat or down because frankly um not sure that oil is going much higher here.
there is a lot of supply everywhere you look. it's not just iran. it's iraq. it's libya. i really like to see the disconnect. >> you have done a lot of work on what looks cheap. i spoke to a very big hedge fund manager last night who told me for the first time in a long time to him the stock market looks cheap. >> i don't know if the overall market screams out stlulgts cheap, but there's been enough damage that you have to be able to find cheap stuff. i'm very interested to see, for example, what some of the industrial companies have to say. you want to talk about the stuff that's been beaten up. not the transports. i mean the diversified manufacturers in this country ask now obviously they're not going to have a happy story to tell. i do think you can now start to build the case that things are cheap. here's the issue. you know a stock that might have seemed cheap is american express, right? you have the value trap thing hanging out there for a lot of folks, and i do think that it's now work for value investors to do. i do think it's applauseible
that wednesday was kind of a wash-out low. at least for a while. we're up 4% from that midday wednesday bottom as jim mentioned. >> if you get bank of america and morgan stanley reaffirming the call that there's only a 20% chance of rerecession, the market over the last several days and certain, you know, people you hear from are acting as if the chances of recession and it's been trading as if there's a 75% not a one in five. >> you're right, scott. by the way, you asked the question earlier. i'm going to come out and say i don't think there's a chance of a u.s. recession, even as high as 20%. one thing that i do have my eye on and this could be a canary in the coal mine as jobless claims. they have been ticking up. that's one of the earliest indicators that we would have of stress in the labor market. having said that, those jobless claims are still in an absolutely low level. if you look at the ism and the regional surveys, the regional manufacturing surveys, employment indexes look good
there. there's no indication of financial stress, inflation. not even meaningful geopolitical risk that would lead us to believe there's a recession in the offing. >> leading indicators this morning too came in. if you look at the chart of leading economic indicators, it looks nothing like what it looks before a recession. >> that's right. >> again, i mean, lower oil prices is more beneficial for many more companies and people than it is for, like, the oil companies. clearly you don't want to be exposed in a big way on the energy side. you could be bumping up your buyback. that's a positive sign. i know you made the point yesterday that maybe that's more of a best in breed case. >> that's -- yes. >> a special circumstance story. rather than an overall tell of the industry. >> and the stock has gotten hammered, right? really, really low. the expectations were really low. they did deliver. when most companies are cutting dividends and not announcing buybacks or cutting cap ex this company is able to deliver. there are special situations where materials and then energy, but i'm much more favorable on the consumer side, and that's
70% of our economy. >> yeah. speaking of the consumer, i know all of us are trying to figure out what to do with all of the volatility. black rock's chairman and ceo larry fink in davos speaking of the volatility is staying somewhat bullish. this is what he told cnbc earlier today in davos. >> first of all, state invested in equities. first of all, citi invested in equities. be there in equities. these are just market corrections. you know, as warren buffett says, it's a long, long race, and i think too many people are panicking over these correction that is are necessary, and the reality is over a long cycle you're going to do fine. >> you're not going to remove the fears of 2008 any time soon. as big, dramatic, and scary as it was and as much money as people ended up losing there, so there is a tendency when the you know what is hitting the fan to try to wrap your arm around the nearest crisis and that being
2008. what about larry fink's point here that what's happening is good and over the long-term you should be invested in stocks. stephanie. >> i think you should be. you have to have a diversified portfolio, right? there are going to be times when certain symptoms stocks get hit really hard, and other times when they do well. i think you really have to have a diversified strategy. stay patient. look for best in breed companies. good balance sheets. good dividends. that's kind of what we're doing. right now you're getting a lot of really great quality companies at a discount, at a valuation to mike santelli's point. >> also, if we're going to make that comparison to 2008, 2009, which is the natural comparison, and we all make it, we have to take a look at the strength of the banking sector right now. yes, we've had energy prices collapse, and that has placed pressure on energy loans. the balance sheets of banks are far, far stronger than they were going into 2008. there's very little chance of a financial system stress happening. >> one of the issues too is where do you want to be in the market ahead of next week's fed meeting? what will the fed do next? our next guest was morning star's fixed income manager of
the year in 20 14 and again in the running for 2015. carl is a portfolio manager at western asset management. who better to ask. carl, welcome back. nice to see you again. >> good afternoon, scott. >> the ecb sort of put all its chips on the table yesterday. what does the fed do? >> i think the fed is doing exactly the right thing. you know, the european economy is very slow, very little, if any, inflation. the u.s. is the bright spot of the world in terms of growth and has inflation below what we would like to see, but certainly well above europe. it's rare if not unprecedented to see central banks going in completely opposite directions as they are today. you have the bank of japan and ecb ease while the fed tightens. in this particular case, i think it's the right thing to do to equate the world imbalances. >> what's more over priced? stocks or bonds? >>. >> the stock market was giving you a positive single for a very long time. the bond market has been in a bear market for going on two
years now. it looks like stocks are finally catching up to bonds to a certain degree, but bond managers are paid to be pessimistic, and in this case i'm actually optimistic. my glass is half full. i see good things to come. >> we've got mario draghi that talks powerfully, but the actual actions he takes are few and far between. you have our own federal reserve that is put out there a four rate hike campaign this year that nobody actually believes. is this a case where you have a lot of talk and a lot less action coming up? >> you always like to under promise and over deliver, and i think the central banks are well aware of that. you never want to make the market think that something is going to happen and have it not like the ecb several months ago. i think the fed is on the right track here. they have a dual mandate full employment at 5%. it's hard to argue that. 2% intermediate term inflation.
core cpi at 1.9. the fed believes that oil is transtory in nature. the fed signals are for them to go ahead. as you mention, the fed and even stanley fisher a few weeks ago say that four is in the ballpark. the market has only one priced in. we at western think that two, maybe three is more realistic. we think the market is a little too optimistic on what the fed is going to do this year. >> does that give them an unconventional tool to walk back from that four rate hike campaign? you know, and basically please the markets by saying, hey, we are really just kidding, we'll do two? >> you know, the market does not believe the fed. it would actually surprise the market to see the fed actually move every quarter like they say. you know, as long as the economic data remains the way it is or at least reasonably close, as long as we don't see a world calamity, you know, and have world financial conditions tighten dramatically, i think the fed is going to move like they say they're going to move. >> where do the greatest
opportunities lie today? i've talked to investors who say, you know, in high yield it's certainly one of the areas. there are people who say, well, a large number of bonds are now trading off 10%. that's somewhat concerning. i've talked to those that say, no, this is a great opportunity if you know what you are looking for. >> i think we're approaching opportunities where the fundamentals are just not the same as the spreads you see in the market. you know, the yield on the high yield index is around 9.75%, approaching 10%. that doesn't tell the story. the distribution is very bimodal. you have a big group of companies that trade around 7% like the health care industry. then you have a big group of companies that trade at 13% to 14% area, you know, like metals, mining, energy. i think the success of a fixed income manager, particularly high yield manager in 2016, is going to buy the bonds that are trading at 13 that are going to
seven and they'll go to 13. >> thanks for coming on. >> thank you. have a good day. >> you too. carl eikstad. should you buy apple or steer clear until there's more information on iphone demand? gene munster is moving the stock with a positive note he put out. we'll talk to him krip. zirchgs plus, home sales just got the biggest monthly pop on record. housing guru i've ji zellman jounz us with her take. it's an exclusive interview. winter storm jonas kicking into high gear. snowflakes already falling in certain parts of the east coast. got the latest on what to expect. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. ♪ today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve.
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>> stocks could have the first positive week of the we're. that's how it's been lately. here's the s&p up 1.5%. energy is leading the way. crude up 7%. no surprise there. piper jaffray gene munster saying the stock could rally by the fall. joining us now for our call of the day. gene, i don't think anybody is surprised to hear you or see you or read a bullish call from you, but this is a big one. >> yeah. it is. part of the reason we think this is a golden opportunity to be more aggressive and in general, as you said, we've been positive on apple, but there are periods where we think our just unique
students, and we think this is one of them. let me quickly go through why we believe that. valuation on a ten-year basis is near -- the second is that i've spent the past week meeting with investors and it's clear that they are handcuffed going into the earnings call. there's going to be a massive reset. our belief is that everyone is waiting for this reset to happen. important waiting for the street numbers for the june quarter to come down on the march guide. >> why not just watt for the reset? there was a note earlier this week from one of your competitors at ubs who thinks that the iphone numbers could even be worse than people expect. why not just wait? >> well, the reason is that people think it's going to be really bad. i think it's going to be -- i think it's priced in is the simple answer. there are some extremely negative numbers that are
getting thrown out there, and i don't think that the iphone guide would suggest 40 million to 45 million. i think it's going to be closer from 50 million to 55 million. i think that's going to be positive for the stock. >> what about margins for the upcoming quarter? do you think the expectings are realistic, or do you think there's risk there. >> the margins should be fine for the december quarter. for the march quarter the estimates have been coming in a little bit because as iphone is a percentage of sales declines, that has a negative impact on margins. they have come in based on the mixeded shift that we've been experiencing. >> i've brought this up on this program before. the currency risk, the hedges that come off the bread and
butter of the story. >> adds currencies fluctuate, that can -- apple maintains some of their price in u.s. dollars. i think that's embedded in what the iphone number is. >> off topic for the quarter, but apple still has an amazing war chest bigger hand most countries' gdp's here. what are they going to do with that in terms of acquisitions? do you think anything happens over the next couple of years? >> the likely or the best thing for them to do is to buy tesla. that's been batted around for a long time. the reason why that makes so much sense is that this is a huge -- at the core of investors' concern is apple's addressable market and how big the tam is. the car opens that up. to put into perspective, if they can replicate the success of bmw, which is about two million cars a year, which some may say is absurd or others may say is
conservative, that would add $135 billion in revenue to apple's business. it's now a $260 billion business. something like tesla, it's been beat up here, would make a ton of sense. my suspicion is elan musk wouldn't sell. he is not the type of person to work for someone. >> maybe their entree into the car is something that cramer has suggested on numerous occasions through a name like harmon rather than tesla. >> that i think could make sense too. i think that there is maybe said even a different way that the car is a big area where they can spend the war chest because it's clear that they're working on that, and it's just a function of can they get the pieces together. >> hey, gene. i appreciate it very much. thanks for coming on. >> thank you. >> piper's gene munster moving the stock by nearly 4%. >> first off, i'm sticking with the name. i've been in it for a while here. i think we have to remember one important fact here where are the products that apple sells are short cycle products.
for us talking about the june quarter it's very, very preliminary. i think that is very much a rush to judgment to put any qualification on what's going to happen in the june quarter. by the same token, if the massive reset were to occur next week on earnings report, that would indicate tim cook and the management teams see so much in the near term that's negative that they want to do this massive reset. i don't think it's going to happen, but if it did, it would be a disaster for the stock. >> real quick, though, just a fact that it's relatively short cycle products, i think to me helps explain why the entire world looks at apple and says it's cheap. i don't think the market knows what to do with the $600 billion company that's on short cycle that actually has to have hits every two years, right? it's not one of these big sit back, you have a moat and collect your money type companies. then you have people saying they should go out and pay $30 billion for a profitable electric car company. there's a lot of swing factor here in these companies. >> i'm not going to touch the electric car part of it.
i think it's the two-year upgrade cycle. if the problem was that you had a two-year upgrade cycle, i wouldn't have a problem at all. people think it's a nine month or one year cycle. two year product cycles people always want to upgrade their phone after two years. >> you are enough of a student of the market to know that maybe the toughest thing to overcome in the story is sentiment. sentiment is so bad here that it seems like there's nothing on the horizon to turn it around before the iphone 7 comes out. >> how are we quantifying sentiment? there's 40 something buy rating on the street. there's one sell. i think it's an easy -- it's an easy sell metric because it's cheap and wonderful company. i think that honestly i do think that's very true. it goes in and out of fashion very quickly. 2012 it was the only thing that worked in the entire market for about nine months of that year. i think it just gets -- it gets cheap enough and then basically they say there's no disaster coming next quarter, it can work. >> you are going to pierce $100 any moment now, by the way. >> sure. the research analysts that cover it, they never downgrade the stock. they try to be the tortuous and
see the long view. they're going to to it. gene, who is the -- had a buy rating on the stock for 11 1/2 years. you know what he has been? he is right. he would have loved to make this a table pounding call two days ago when everyone was killing the stock and the market. that would have been really cool. this is still an interesting call, obviously. >> there is a big disconnect between the sell side and liking and having buys and the buy side who i think a lot of portfolio managers are underweight this stock. i think a lot of portfolio managers are still very overweight. the fang stocks, if you will. i don't think it takes much. we've been -- i've been covering my underweight into this weakness, but i'm built really willing to go overweight until we get the news. i wouldn't be willing to pay up a couple of dollars that -- and just have the news out there, and then so that we can kind of build our models and figure it all out. for the long-term, i think this is a really good story. very cheap at 9.7 times forward estimates. very cheap.
there is some of this. >> big investors, what they want to know what's happening in house, they call ivy ze lman. you will get to hear from her live. plus, american express plunging after the bleak outlook. news about a shareholder as well. can the company turn things around? we'll give you that trade. there's amex. down 12%. as we head to break, today's biggest gainers. williams, marathon, petroleum, devon and kinder morgan. more of the banged up stocks getting a bump. we're back after this.nc has a number. policy but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. for those who've served and the families who've supported them, we offer our best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. ♪
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>> time for the trader blitz. five trades on five stocks making news today. first up, amex is having its worst day since 2009. 38% drop in profits, and then news that david faber brought us a short time ago that value act valueact no longer has a position, and the stock took a leg after that. >> they're not cool banning, and it's just another credit card company. stay away from it. >> i still maintain since the costco announcement happened,
the stock has not been the same. >> yeah. >> has not been the same. >> they did give weak guidance for the current quarter. you know, schultz was on squawk on the street earlier, and turned the stock. >> yeah, i think the expectations were just really very high. particularly because a couple of weeks ago he was on tv saying how strong china was. when they jumped -- >> he was on the ground when he called in to cnbc. >> right. people thought that the 6% comp in china would actually maybe be beaten, and it came in at five. traffic was up four in china.
>> at these levels we'll back up the truck. >> impressive. >> you guys back up the truck? >> yes. they had a great balance sheet to do it. >> slumberge e. better than expected earnings. that $10 billion buyback. i think they're getting rid of 10,000 workers. what do you make of this overall story? >> they're cutting -- >> this is a quality company that three to five years from now is going to be around. i think the long-term investors who are looking at this trying to find a spot maybe not today, but in general they're going to be happy they own this. it's not going anywhere, and secular change or not, this is a winner. >> okay. ge, general electric. reporting a mixed quarter. revenue short of estimates. currency headwinds. a company pushing back some shipments as well.
who owns it? >>. >> i'm not anymore. i did. >> not anymore. >> i actually sold it earlier in the week. >> why so? >> i thought the expectations have gotten very high. this isn't one that i feel -- i feel like there are so many industrials out there. skwault industrials where the expectations are really low. i took the money at ge and actually put it into honeywell, which is trading at a discount to ge. they have the elster acquisition. they have more things, i think, that could enable them to deliver earnings and maybe even positively surprise. >> i know they've done a lot to get rid of the finances. it's not for me. >> it's been rewarred for what
they're doing. >> speaking of industrials, boeing cutting production of 747 models by half in september. jim, i'm coming back to you. this appears to be about the air freight business. >> right. well, first off, the 747 is a beautiful plane. i love to see it on the ground or in the air, but if you are in boeing, you better not be in it for the 474's because the end is in sight. if are you in boeing, you have to be in it for the 737 max and the triple 7 x. those are coming out in the next few years. the 737 max is already been rolled out, by the way. the problem that you need to be aware of here is the bridge to the triple 7x is the regular triple-7, and then we'll probably see a production cut there. that's priced at least partially into the stock. the question is how deep do they cut the production? >>. >> she called the last housing boom and bust. ivy zelman has the latest outlook on the market and the builders giving stock picks as well. plus, earnings in full swing next week. check out that list. mcdonald's, bm, amazon, chevron.
many, many, had more. we'll discuss a lot of them. we'll tell you how to position your portfolio ahead of those numbers. welcome to opportunity's knocking, where self-proclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov
and new york. human remains have been found at the crash site of an f-16 fighter jet that went down thursday in arizona. the peelt was engaged in basic air-to-air combat training when the jet went down near luke air force base. there were no other crew members on board. special american forces arrived in iraq on wednesday to aid iraqi forces in their fight against isis. their arrival triggered mixed reactions from iraqi politicians. some were dismissive. others, though, welcomed the arrival. the national highway traffic safety administration says automobile recalls hit another report last year. that is the cnbc news update
this hour. scottie, back to you. >> all right, sue. thanks so much. home building stocks having a very strong day today following the largest monthly sales jump ever for existing homes. what do the numbers say about the current state of the market? let's ask ivy zelman, the ceo of zelman and associates joining us today exclusivive by phone. >> thank you for having me, scott. it's great to be on. >> i know you got back from i big conference out in vegas. how would you characterize where you think the housing market is today? >> you know, i have -- the conference was actually more upbeat than i would have expected given the somber situation on wall street. >> people talk about the autos have been strong. airplane sales have been strong.
maybe you gather from boeing. you got peak airplane. maybe you got peak housing. any thought of that being true? >> well, it would really be hard to be at peak housing given the lack of recovery we've had so far, and although we are have been recovering since really 2012, we've -- single family starts are up. we still think we have about 35% to 40% below normalized housing starts. we have a real lack of shelter, and i think affordability is at pretty much record levels and rates have stayed low and in a very weak economy i can't imagine rates going higher, but we have runway -- a lot of people living in apartments and starting to see.
>> there's a flat housing shortage. >> absolutely. >> when you look at the areas of the market you like best and i'm looking at a report that you put out called the ten preferred stock recommendations that you have, you know, you have pretty big projected runway for some stocks. let's get specific, if we could. give me some of your sort of best in breed or the ones that you like the best when it comes to the builders themselves. we saw sequential increase november and december. you know, when you look at the high quality.
>> we're trading at .7 times book. zi think as anybody starts to realize that housing is really on solid footing, this would have huge outperformance on short covering alone. >> they're best in class trading at one to two times book, and the large caps are trading at 1.5. we see tremendous growth. we have builders growing earnings between 35% to 40% on average. look at the s&p 1500. the analyst community forecasting 7% earnings growth.
>> we think there's compelling opportunities across our state. it's really to give people a look across, and there's no question the building stocks have the most upside, and we like pulte and that basket. we're recommending both mohawk as our top pick on the building products right now that we like lowe's today as our best home center. >> why lowe's over home depot? >> just valuation. it's more compelling. they're both great companies, and i think we all recognize the cash flow from lowe's is really tremendous as we think about the near term. we think that they can beat the street, but we really think lowe's is a great value here. >> you're expecting a 28% projected return. we did mention some of the other stocks, and cal atlantic, 65% up side. you see it there. >> what about the report that
came out on xigsing home sales, ivy? we said it was the best monthly jump ever. there was some shade being thrown on that by virtue of it was just some feel said a pull through from november because of new mortgage regulations. how should we view what was what we got today? >> it's how the market is on solid footing, and i think we'll get pending home sales that we also think directionally will be favorable. i think that we're looking at right now the season -- the spring selling season is upon us, but i doty that overall the industry is healthy and today's number may be better than it's been in a very long time from the rebound from november or we think the overall research market is healthy. the reason why you may have numbers that actually are out there as they are under pressure, scott, is because there's not enough inventory. that's the biggest problem that we have. as you see numbers if they're weak, that would be the reason. maybe it's the exception of a market like new york is he and midtown where a lot of the
foreign buyers were there and they're now not so active, but i think that with that as the exception or houston i think the market in the united states housing is -- we call it the tallest midget. housing is fairing well. >> what gets you to be less bullish? you know, you do have a growing number of people starting to talk about recession on a daily basis. >> consumer get really nervous. i would tell you that if you look back historically where we've had recessions that were not housing-led recessions, we actually had housing fair very well, and when you look at where inventories are and affordability and rent, i think that housing if it is negatively
impacted because jobs are slowing, which we had in prior recessions, and i think that we would be probably relative to other sectors holding up better. look at where the stocks are trading, scott. they're already trading as if we are in recession. we have stocks below liquidation value. >> you are projecting where you think the fed will go in the remainder of the year and how that's going to transfer through to the housing business itself. what do you think is going to happen and the impact on mortgage rates is going to be what? i'm asking you this question as i look at a ten-year yielding 2%. >> i'm not going have any
intelligence beyond the experts on what it's going to do, but i will tell you this, nonbank mortgage lenders are out there lending. >> what you have to focus on is mortgage availability and credit. it's not about an absolute -- if a pregnant woman with a toddler at her toes is walking and looking around for a house, it's not about the rate. it's about the month will i payment and the monthly payment as a percent of growth income is so low relative to history that we can have mortgage rates go up to 6% before we get back to being back to normal affordability as they get their
5% or 10% rent increase notice. i think we have to put it in perspective that the mortgage market is open for business and it's a lot ease wrer to get a mortgage today than it was, and millenials are buying again. >> ivy, appreciate the conversation as always. snoo happy new year. thanks, scott. >> ivy zelman for us today. your read? your play? >> i want housing to do better than it has done. it's been a good spot in the economy, but we want it to do better. >> i agree with her on those. i'm not in the housing stocks myself, so i can't speak to that, but i do think this is about household formation. >> you have home buying. >> favorable supply demand metrics. she just talked about that, right? i think that there's a lot of names in this sector that are very, very cheap. i like toll under $30 a lot.
it's more high-end, which is mixed, but i do like what they're doing kind of in the city strategy. i like whirlpool because i think that's a back doorway of playing it. >> how about the lowe's call over home depot? >> you could own both. they both correctly -- actually lowe's has held up a little bit better than home depot. right now you probably want to favor home depot, but they're both going to continue to do well. >> plus,tracking winter storm jonas already. causing a mess in the south. moving its way up the east coast. it's even affecting the nfl, the carolina panthers, of course, getting ready to play the nfc championship game this weekend with the cardinals in what could be some ice. the latest forecast is coming up next. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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jackie deangelis at the nymex with the numbers. jackie? >> good afternoon to you, scott. that's right. two days of rallying here for crude oil prices. crude seeing its biggest one-day gain since october and we are seemingly stabilizing here over $31 a barrel. brian, very difficult to trade crude in volatile market sessions that we've seen. how do you want to do it right now? >> well, jackie, when you're looking at volatility has been the name here. the oil volatility index the other day hitting 70. i thought that was a sign of capitulation. it seemed people were flushing out. maybe a temporary bottom. i always wanted to be a buyer below $30 now we're trading back above. and the follow through is confirmation that maybe we've temporarily bottomed.
huge supply, that will be a factor that will weigh on oil. i don't expect it to get over $35. >> griz, how do you foal? >> trading is all about patterns. when you look at crude oil over the last few months, we've had three weeks of down moves, one week of up moves. if we start next week, if equities start lower, crude oil starts lower, i will think we're in that same pattern where next week we'll finish lower. i would like to see if we can hold that $30 area. if we do, it might be the time to buy. >> for more on the futures market head to futurenow.cnbc.com. >> coming up, winter storm jonas making its way up the east coast. flights being canceled all over the place. we'll get the latest from reagan national in d.c. when we come back. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns.
like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade. weyoung company around but if we want to keep the soda pop flowing we need fresh ideas! >>got it. we slow, we die. >>what about cashing out? no! i'm trying to build something here. >>how about using fedex ground for shipping? >>i don't need some kid telling me how to run a business! i've been doing this for 4 long months. >>fedex ground can help us save money and deliver fast to our customers. not bad, kid. you remind me of a younger me. >>aiden! the dog is eating your retainer again. let's take a short 5-minute recess. fedex ground is faster to more locations than ups ground.
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welcome back. i'm eamon javers in washington where we do not have a single flake of snow on the ground just yet, but already we've got a city that is in the process of entirely shutting down. a lot of the schools systems in the area closing classes for today. over at the white house they closed the press briefing. the metro system said they are closing down as of 11:00 p.m. tonight. here at ronald reagan national airport we're seeing a spate of flight cancellations. travelers scrambling to get the last planes out of dodge. nationwide we have seen 3,138 flight cancellations already for today and for tomorrow the picture is not much better. 3,203 cancellations for saturday already and we'll have to see what the damage is as this snow rolls into the washington, d.c., area. the good news, scott, on capitol hill they will be open for sledding for the kids all weekend. >> nice. eamon, thanks. eamon javers with the latest out of d.c.
all right. big, big week next week in terms of earnings. mike santoli first though, you get something to believe in this week? do you believe what we've seen these last couple days? >> i believe the market showed it doesn't need to go down any more beyond what it did wednesday to price in what we know about what the economy looks like. i honesty think that's the case. doesn't mean it's the ultimate low. i think it was much more of a capital markets event. >> it will be an earnings driven week ex oil and china and wha whatever. mcdonald's on monday. >> i'm nervous about it because it has had a nice run. i'm holding it. i'm not buying it. if it falls, i'll probably buy more. >> jimmy, there's a lot of names on the list. >> apple is the one standout. i think that's going to set the whole sentiment, the whole tone for the week and it's early in the week on tuesday afternoon. >> caterpillar. amazon on thursday. >> amazon still very popular. they broke out -- they showed some numbers last time.
second quarter in a row, can get more fundamental guys involved. valuation be damned. >> microsoft? >> microsoft very similar. still very popular. see if the cloud is still working for them. d.r. horton monday also important. >> good stuff. guys, enjoy the snow. great weekend. "power lunch" starts now. scott, thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch," everybody. along with michelle caruso-cabrera, i'm tyler mathisen. >> stocks have started the day off very bullish, but they have fallen back to earth a bit. right now the dow jones is higher by 159. nasdaq is higher by 2% and the s&p 500 by 1.75%. >> straight ahead this hour, something may be bubbling on wall street that will force the already beaten markets maybe even a little bit lower. >> and when big energy companies start reporting their numbers, will things be even worse for those stocks than they already are? big question there. but we're going to start with today'